From a purely pragmatic point of view, this predictive strategy is a win-win. If the predicted event occurs, it validates the initial analysis a posteriori (that being said, the possibility of a self-fulfilling prophecy cannot be ruled out). If the event does not...
José Miguel Palacios, 14 de marzo de 2023 En agosto de 2022, el Gobierno hizo público al anteproyecto de la futura Ley de Información Clasificada[1], llamada a reemplazar a la vieja Ley de Secretos Oficiales de 1968 (ligeramente enmendada en 1978...
“Como me alertaba uno de los asesores más veteranos, yo no era el primero que tenía la osadía de poner a trabajar de forma coordinada a los diferentes organismos de información e inteligencia del Estado”. Antonio M. Díez Fernández[7] José...
“This is an unworkable concept of operations. It seems they tried to win quickly and cheaply via ‘thunder runs’…” Michael Kofman[i] José Miguel Palacios, 2 de marzo de 2022 [i]Los primeros análisis del desarrollo de la guerra de Ucrania...
The problem is (…) in the application of intelligence analysis in fields where its specific virtues are not adequate, not actually needed, or even might become counter-productive. Intelligence analysis can, employed in the right context, considerably enhance overall...
Cummings once startled his attractive young secretary by telling her he proposed to publish his memoirs after he retired: ‘I shall call them “The Indiscretions of a Secret Service Chief”. It will be a splendid-looking publication bound in red with the title and my...
